KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2030 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2030 69.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2030 69.5%Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$562.5
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2030Spread
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Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 5:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2030
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:SemaforABCBloombergNBCThe Washington PostAssociated PressThe Wall Street JournalFox NewsReutersThe InformationPoliticoAxiosMSNBCCNNthe New York TimesCBS
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2030
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2029
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.