Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJul 13, 24, 9:23 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSS, FSB, ФСБ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) - Russian security agency, successor to KGB.
- Resolves YES when several reputable sources report that government or parliament of Russia(*) or US or UK or EU or UN officially recognizes division of FSB or whole FSB or whole Russia as a terrorist organization.
- The recognition could be a direct proclamation OR inclusion in the list of terrorist organization OR terrorist states.
- Proclamations from other security agencies is not enogh to trigger a YES resolution, it should be political decision by government or parliment, not by some (high ranking) officer or expert.
- Otherwise resolves to NO on January 1st 2030.
- *Russia = Russian Federation or any internationally recognized state, that is official successor to Russian Federation.
