Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 22, 26, 9:06 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 10:02 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ilhan Omar be a US House member on 1 Feb 2029?
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KalshiIlhan Omar federally charged by which date?
PolymarketWill Ilhan Omar be deported by which date?
PolymarketIlhan Omar arrested by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves according to a consensus of popular reporting at the end of 2028 (or earlier, if this consensus arises).
- If there's an open debate and reporting disagrees on the subject, or even if reporting refuses to touch this story with a 10-foot pole but most traders on here have convincing evidence supporting or rejecting this thesis, then this may resolve according to my judgment, consulting with other Manifold moderators / superusers / expert forecasters.
- I will obviously not bet on this market.
- Yes, half-siblings count.
- Resolves to the spirit of the question.
- If her ex-husband was, say, her adopted brother, but DNA tests show no relation, his would still count as well.