Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastA rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 25, 12:53 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 1:29 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
During the 2025 edition of La Vuelta a España, multiple stages were disrupted by protestors protesting Israel's actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the participation of the Israel-Premier Tech team in the race.
- The UCI issued a statement after the race condemning the protests and criticizing the Spanish government's handling of the situation, while the Spanish government called for the Israel-Premier Tech team to be sanctioned and affirmed the rights of its citizens to protest.
- This is potentially an ongoing situation with no clear resolution as of yet, so I created this market to track some of the possible ways this situation could develop over the next year.
- For the purposes of this market: - A WorldTour race is any race classified by the UCI as 1.UWT, 1.WWT, or any stage of a race classified as 2.UWT or 2.WWT, or any race of the UCI Road World Championship. - For a race to be disrupted, either the stage's route must be modified or shortened as a direct result of the protests, or at least one rider must be injured as a direct result of the actions of the protestors.
- As far as I am aware, this definition would include Stages 11, 15, 16, 18, and 21 of this year's Vuelta.
- This market will close after the 2026 UCI cycling season, and all events that have not occurred at that time will resolve NO.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket?
- Manifold Markets prices A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket resolve?
- Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: During the 2025 edition of La Vuelta a España, multiple stages were disrupted by protestors protesting Israel's actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the participation of the Israel-Premier Tech team in the race.