Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.6%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 30, 24, 7:11 AM UTCJul 31, 28, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
By free and fair election I mean an election that is not much less free and fair than the election held in 2020.
- This will be resolved by a poll on Manifold after the 2028 election.
- Market NA's if Donald Trump doesn't win.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028? resolve?
- Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2028.
- How is Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By free and fair election I mean an election that is not much less free and fair than the election held in 2020.