This market resolved: Yes (96.3%)
Resolved: Oct 2, 2026, 2:21 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes96.3%
No3.700000000000003%
Won
Lost
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California just passed Prop 50, which redistricted the state to give Democrats five more seats in the US House.
- Now, the Justice Department is suing to throw out the map.
- This market resolves YES if the Prop 50 map (or a close variant, as judged by me*) ends up being used in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
- *I'll probably judge a map as "close" if it is about as favorable to Democrats as the Prop 50 map (or more favorable).
- But if e.g. the map that ends up being used only gives four extra seats to Democrats, then I'll probably judge the map as "not close".