Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNot by 2040 76.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
44
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleSep 28, 23, 7:40 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold MarketsBy 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
Manifold MarketsIn which years will the US Congress hold UFO/UAP hearings?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiDoes P = NP?
Manifold MarketsRules
This is a long-term market to measure the base rate of it being proven and agreed on that at least one instance of a "UFOs = Aliens" theory was correct before the creation of this market.
- It resolves to the one option representing the current time period when this happens, or "the named outcome" if this does not happen.
- I plan for resolution to be based on Wikipedia, or whatever else is generally agreed to be the most neutral and trusted online encyclopedia.
- I may require several trusted encyclopedias to agree, and am open to suggestions of which ones to trust.
- If Manifold adds the ability to close options early, I will do so when a date passes without any consensus.
- I will not bet in this market, except to set the initial probability.