When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
TechOne-Off18yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:17 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore January 2040 10.4%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
112
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 23, 6:10 PM UTCJan 1, 45, 7:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By what year will we know that any past UFO/UAP was really Alien technology?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsIf EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
Manifold MarketsIf Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
See previously:
- @/Joshua/by-what-year-will-we-know-that-any
- @/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
- This is an unlinked market, so that each time period can resolve NO independently, or they can resolve YES all together.
- It also includes meta-options about the other options.
- An answer resolves NO if it arrives without there being proof of a UFO/UAP from before market creation having a worldview-shattering origin such as aliens, time-travelers, interdimensional travelers, secret superintelligence made by ancient humans, biblical demons, etc.
