Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?
One-OffUS PoliticsHealth & MedicineSociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.6%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 23, 10:13 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Currently 28% of transgender youth live in states where best-practice medical care for transgender youth is banned, as reported by LGBT MAP: https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/healthcare_youth_medical_care_bans
- [link preview]If the above source stops reporting data at resolution time, data from Human Rights Campaign (https://www.hrc.org/resources/attacks-on-gender-affirming-care-by-state-map) will be used, or other similarly credible source.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): States Defying Orders and In-Practice Access
- If a state law or order banning best-practice care is not effectively enforced (i.e. patients continue to have in-practice access to care), this will count as not being a ban for resolution purposes.
- For example, if a state directs healthcare providers to continue offering treatments despite a federal order, then that state would not be considered as banning care, potentially leading to a NO resolution.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
