At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics18yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleAug 23, 24, 7:10 PM UTCFeb 2, 45, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES when, at any point prior to market close, any one political party besides the Republican Party or Democratic Party simultaneously has ≥25 points from the following sources:
- State governor - worth 8 points
- US Senator - worth 8 points
- US House rep - worth 3 points
- POTUS - worth 25 points
- For example, if the Green Party held 2 US Senate seats and 3 US House seats at the same time (8 + 8 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 25), this market would resolve YES.
