Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.4%
Forecasters
87
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 23, 1:11 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
"Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.
- They have qualia, they have subjective experiences.
- Whatever it is that adult human philosophers believe themselves to have.
- This is about the average human baby, 1 week after birth.
- The existance of some outlier babies is not relevant.
- This market resolves once neuroscience is solved, and it seems we're going to have as good an answer as we're ever going to get.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Are babies conscious??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Are babies conscious? resolve?
- Are babies conscious? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.
- How is Are babies conscious? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "Concious" is defined in the standard way: There is something it is like to be a baby.
