Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 25, 11:27 PM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? resolve?
- 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.