Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 25, 11:27 PM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.