KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 21% 96%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 AM UTCOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill Jair Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Michelle Bolsonaro be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsFlávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?
PolymarketRules
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The percentage is Flávio Bolsonaro's share of the valid votes cast in the first round, calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results.
- Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)?
- Kalshi prices At least 21% at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) resolve?
- Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is Brazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.