KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Below 38.5% · —
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Stored price
Below 38.5% 96.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Below 38.5% 96.5%Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$248.1K
Open interest
$135.9K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Below 38.5%Spread
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Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Oct 25, 26, 2:01 PM UTCOct 26, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Below 38.5%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 27, 2026?
KalshiWhat will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on Oct. 28?
PredictItWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:RealClearPolitics
- The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.
Rules for each outcome
- Below 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is below 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.5%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.5% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.7%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.7% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.8%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.9%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.9% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 39.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is above 39.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 38.6%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.6% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39.1%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 39.0%
- If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 39.0% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.