KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 3:24 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 2:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
34 or more1%
2 or more2%
37 or more1%
40 or more1%
45 or more1%
52 or more1%
4 or more2%
8 or more2%
24 or more2%
27 or more2%
20 or more2%
31 or more2%
2 or moreLost
4 or moreLost
8 or moreLost
12 or moreLost
20 or moreLost
24 or moreLost
27 or moreLost
31 or moreLost
34 or moreLost
37 or moreLost
40 or moreLost
45 or moreLost
52 or moreLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Coalition avenir Québec has won at least 2 seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Elections Quebec
- A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either (a) the time for filing legal challenges has expired without challenge, (b) any legal challenges have been finally resolved, or (c) the elected member has taken their seat in the parliament/legislature.
- Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of any subsequent changes in affiliation.
- The count will be determined when the new legislature takes their seat, even if vacant seats remain or some results are continuing to be challenged.
- If the election is postponed, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled election, unless the postponement extends beyond one year from the originally scheduled date, in which case the market will resolve to the last fair market price.
- If the election is cancelled entirely (that is, it is not Fully Conducted as defined in the Contract), the market will resolve to the last fair market price.