KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 1.25 million · —
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Stored price
At least 1.35 million 34%Market line of 9 lines
At least 1.35 million 34%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9
Open interest
$1.8K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 1.25 millionSpread
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Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Sep 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 1.25 million
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Colorado Amendment 84 (ID requirement for mail ballots) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the US ban mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterm elections?
FutuurWill USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any ballot boxes or mail in ballots be confiscated in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsMail-in ballots eliminated by 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsPennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?
KalshiRules
If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:University of Florida Election Lab
- The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the page is unavailable at that time, the request_all value for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) as of that time is used. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 1.25 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.2 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.3 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.35 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.45 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.4 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.6 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.5 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.5 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.7 million
- If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.7 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
