KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No other person 52.1%+11.0ptLeader of 17 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$306.1
Liquidity
$22.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Apr 24, 26, 4:00 PMJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
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Rules
If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- Acting and Interim positions don't count.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.9pt99%
- Seth Moulton-1.3pt1%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.9K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt62%
- October 31+3.0pt40%
- September 30+1.0pt21%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+2.9pt52%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt18%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $63.7M
- 24h Vol
- $328.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt20%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt16%
- Gavin Newsom15%
+48 more outcomes
- 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Michigan Senate winner?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Trump out as President before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense??
- Kalshi prices No other person at 52% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? resolve?
- Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.