KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrats, 8+ pts 61%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$24.6
Low liquiditySpread
9.2 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 7:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Michigan Board of State Canvassers
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Michigan Governor Election Margin of Victory · Benson 9-12% 22%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Michigan Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 8+ pts at 61% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Michigan Governor margin of victory resolve?
- Michigan Governor margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Michigan Governor margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Michigan by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Michigan Governor margin of victory listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.