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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 7:07 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Democrats, 48+ pts 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
9.9 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 43rd District by 48 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for California's 43rd District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 48+ pts at 0% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does California's 43rd District margin of victory resolve?
- California's 43rd District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is California's 43rd District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 43rd District by 48 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.