KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Obernolte, 2+ pts · —
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Stored price
Obernolte, 11+ pts 55.5%Market line of 9 lines
Obernolte, 11+ pts 55.5%Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Obernolte, 2+ ptsSpread
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Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Obernolte, 2+ pts
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Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Rules for each outcome
- Obernolte, 2+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 5+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 8+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 11+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 14+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 17+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 20+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 23+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Obernolte, 26+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
