KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 84%
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$205.9
Liquidity
$205.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 16.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any member of Congress be expelled in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- any member of Congress must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Sep 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Sep 2026? resolve?
- Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Sep 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Sep 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any member of Congress resigns or is expelled as any member of Congress in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.