KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 8 19%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$27.8
Liquidity
$35.2
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:30 PM UTCSep 15, 26, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
Manifold MarketsRules
If Sep 7, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- Daily counts will be evaluated from Sep 7, 2026 to Sep 13, 2026.
- The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
- If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where N is the number of tied days.
- If Sep 8, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sep 9, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/7 - 9/13)?
- Kalshi prices September 8 at 19% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/7 - 9/13) resolve?
- Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/7 - 9/13) is scheduled to resolve on September 15, 2026.
- How is Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (9/7 - 9/13) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Sep 7, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes.