Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
4.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionChina3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
China 16.8%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$10
Liquidity
$4K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
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If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- If a free trade deal with the named outcome has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Taiwan has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Indonesia has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Kenya has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026??
- Kalshi prices China at 17% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026? resolve?
- Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless.