Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionChina2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
India · —
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Stored price
India 11%Leader of 9 outcomes
India 11%Market quality
45 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$35.7
Open interest
$5.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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IndiaSpread
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Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · India
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
Rules for each outcome
- India
- If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Taiwan
- If a free trade deal with Taiwan has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- United Kingdom
- If a free trade deal with United Kingdom has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Argentina
- If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- China
- If a free trade deal with China has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kenya
- If a free trade deal with Kenya has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- European Union
- If a free trade deal with European Union has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Switzerland
- If a free trade deal with Switzerland has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Indonesia
- If a free trade deal with Indonesia has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
