Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin America5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityArgentina 29%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$981
Liquidity
$435
Low liquidityBid / Ask
29.0% / 33.0%
Spread
13.8%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 11:00 PMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Argentina29%
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If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with United Kingdom has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Taiwan has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Indonesia has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a free trade deal with Kenya has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.