Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 57 minutes ago
LaggingSep 13, 26, 5:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:12 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a new, distinct policy promise between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, that is deemed "absurd" by a majority of voters in a community poll.
- To resolve the market:
- The promise must be new and announced after the market's creation (thus excluding previous proposals like the $5,000 "Trump dividend").
- If Trump makes a new prominent promise that is widely characterized by media, analysts, or the public as highly unrealistic or absurd, a poll will be conducted among Manifold users to determine if it meets the "absurd" threshold.
- If a simple majority of voters in the poll agree that the promise is absurd, this market resolves to YES.