KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: James Martin (98%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
James Martin 99%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$6.2K
Liquidity
$29.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 10:12 PMAug 18, 27, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Bernard Taylor1%
James Martin99%
99%
1%
Rules
If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Democratic Party of Florida
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Jon Ossoff16.2%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt15.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.5M
- 24h Vol
- $987.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro32.4%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt4.9%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+2.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman-4.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.5M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom15%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt14%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio+0.4pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.7M
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt45.3%
- Marco Rubio-3.0pt21.1%
- Ron DeSantis-0.2pt5.3%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $58.7M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for FL-21 Democratic nominee??
- Kalshi prices James Martin at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does FL-21 Democratic nominee? resolve?
- FL-21 Democratic nominee? is scheduled to resolve on August 18, 2027.
- How is FL-21 Democratic nominee? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.