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Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 40%
Before Jan 1, 2027 40%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$7.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 2:00 AM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Jan 1, 202740%
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Sara DuterteThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersOffice of the Vice President of the PhilippinesCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Sara Duterte must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Sara Duterte leaves as Vice President of the Philippines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Sara Duterte leaves as Vice President of the Philippines before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.