KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Bahrain (99%)
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, 6:47 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Bahrain
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Bahrain 99%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.6K
Liquidity
$3.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
99.0% / 100.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated yesterday
StaleAug 21, 26, 9:38 AMAug 23, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Bahrain99%
Saudi Arabia1%
99%
1%
Rules
If Bahrain wins the the named outcome vs Bahrain men's professional International Friendlies basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result.
- If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
- All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
- If the named outcome wins the the named outcome vs Bahrain men's professional International Friendlies basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+2.5pt100%
- August 25+2.1pt97%
- August 31+1.0pt89%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $588.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt69%
- October 31-0.5pt42%
- September 3027%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by which date?
- June 30, 202725%
- December 3116%
- November 3010%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.9M
- 24h Vol
- $111.8K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt19%
- October 31-3.0pt10%
- September 308%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Iran target a Arab country on?
- August 17+20.4pt100%
- August 24+19.0pt24%
- August 30+4.5pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain?
- Kalshi prices Bahrain at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain resolve?
- Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain is scheduled to resolve on August 23, 2026.
- How is Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Bahrain wins the the named outcome vs Bahrain men's professional International Friendlies basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.