KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Jay Feely
Resolved: Jul 22, 2026, 12:31 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
Jay Feely 100%+8.5ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$39.7K
Liquidity
$79.2K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 32 days ago
StaleDec 19, 25, 8:30 PMNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Jay Feely90%
Joseph Chaplik8%
Jason Duey0%
Gina Swoboda0%
Michelle Ugenti-Rita0%
Todd Graham0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+2.0pt18.9%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt17%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.2%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.4M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+1.1pt23%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.1pt14%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt11%
+125 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.2pt23%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt15%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt15%
+125 more outcomes
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham+3.0pt62.7%
- Ralph Norman-3.0pt29.1%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14.8M
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Golf / Golfer / Golfing99%
- Sleepy Joe99%
- Kamala99%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $606.1K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt72%
- October 31+4.0pt48%
- September 30+5.0pt32%
+17 more outcomes
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Trump out as President before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AZ-01 Republican nominee??
- Kalshi prices Jay Feely at 100% as of July 22, 2026.
- When does AZ-01 Republican nominee? resolve?
- AZ-01 Republican nominee? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is AZ-01 Republican nominee? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AZ-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.