How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection12mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
38 or more 99%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4
Liquidity
$6.9K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 6:50 PM UTCSep 6, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Landeswahlausschuss Sachsen-Anhalt
- A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat
- Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes.
- The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged.
- If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price.
- Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election??
- Kalshi prices 38 or more at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election? resolve?
- How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election? is scheduled to resolve on September 6, 2027.
- How is How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won at least 36 seats in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election, then the market resolves to Yes.