KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 2.50 94%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$49.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
74.0% / 83.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 24, 26, 2:00 PMNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.2579%
Compare venues· Above 2.50
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 94% | — | $2.5K | $49.1K | 21 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 27% | — | — | — | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Price of gas on Election Day?
3mo
+0.2pt27%
+0.9pt21.6%
-0.7pt17.7%
+8 more outcomes
Community forecast12 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.00 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.25 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.5kJul 227d of dataJul 28
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If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $2.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.00 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.25 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.50 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $3.75 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.