Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Sep 20, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Michael Baumgartner 84.5%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
84.0% / 85.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 12:48 PM UTCNov 10, 26, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Who will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Washington-05?
- If the named outcome wins the 2026 U.S. House election in WA-05, then this market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources.
- View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F8634b5141fe14d6783a347884150d6bd?alt=media&token=f103a20d-e51f-47f5-ad36-03aaaafec1cc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Washington-05 House Winner?
- Gemini prices Michael Baumgartner at 85% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Washington-05 House Winner resolve?
- Washington-05 House Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2026.
- How is Washington-05 House Winner settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Who will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Washington-05?