Number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the end of Lula's term?
PoliticsOne-OffLatin AmericaCommodities2moFutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
11 or more 96%Leader of 4 outcomes
11 or more 96%Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$530
Low liquidityTraders
16
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Updated 2 minutes ago
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In 2019, Petrobras closed a deal with the Administrative Council of Economic Defense (CADE) to alienate eight of its refineries (50% of its refining capacity) by the end of 2021.
- In 2022, CADE agreed to extend the sales schedule by request of the company, without the publication of a new end date.
- In June of 2022, Petrobras controlled 14 oil refineries spread through the national territory.
- The winning outcome in this market will be the one whose range of values contains the number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the moment Luís Inácio Lula da Silva permanently leaves the office of President of Brazil, regardless of whether that happens at the expected end of his full term (in January 2027) or sooner than that for any reason, foreseen or not in the Constitution.
- If the president temporarily leaves office (as in attending international meetings) and gets substituted for a limited period of time, he will still be considered the sitting president for the sake of this market.
- The most recently available equity statement of Petrobrás at the time of the market resolution will be taken into consideration to verify its eventual disinvestment.