Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Smarkets data is temporarily unavailable. Odds shown are the last values we collected on Oct 7, 2026.
Current implied probability
No 87.7%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
3.6% / 12.5%
Spread
8.9 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 20 days ago
StaleTrends
Rules
Shabana Mahmood to be replaced as Home Secretary in 2026
