PredictItClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Unverified resolution data: 39.9% to 40.1% (97%)
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
39.9% to 40.1%3%
38.9% or lower58%
39.0% to 39.2%1%
39.3% to 39.5%3%
39.6% to 39.8%1%
40.2% to 40.4%1%
40.5% to 40.7%1%
40.8% to 40.1%4%
41.1% or higher3%
39.9% to 40.1%Awaiting result
38.9% or lowerAwaiting result
39.0% to 39.2%Awaiting result
39.3% to 39.5%Awaiting result
39.6% to 39.8%Awaiting result
40.2% to 40.4%Awaiting result
40.5% to 40.7%Awaiting result
40.8% to 40.1%Awaiting result
41.1% or higherAwaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?
Manifold MarketsHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiHow high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiWill Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of his second term be at least as low as Joe Biden’s?
Manifold MarketsRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Trump's average Decision Desk HQ job approval rating at the End Date listed below.
- The approval rating shall be drawn from the number stating "Approve," available upon launch of this market at https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/presidential-approval/donald-j-trump-5/national/lv-rv-adults ("the Settlement Source"), at the box labeled as "Approve," and rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent as shown on devices set to Eastern Time.
Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled "Approve" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
Should the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/11/2026 11:00 AM (ET)