Will US attack Yemen before February?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes
Resolved: Jan 12, 2024, 2:16 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Yes 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleDec 26, 23, 6:25 PMJan 31, 24, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 25, 12:00 PM ET, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military attack" is any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a Houthi weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions.
- Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count.
- The US striking an unmanned aerial vehicle or projectile over Yemeni territory in a defensive capacity will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will US attack Yemen before February??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does Will US attack Yemen before February? resolve?
- Will US attack Yemen before February? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2024.
- How is Will US attack Yemen before February? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between December 25, 12:00 PM ET, and January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.