Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 14%
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$538.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 23.0%
Spread
283.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 7:41 PMSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes14%
Related Markets
Israeli Parliament dissolved by…?
$680June 15 11.59pm ET: 2.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?
$250Yes: 8.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Binyamin Netanyahu still Prime Minister of Israel through the end of 2026?
$228.3Yes: 48%FUTUUR
FUTUURFirst overseas visit of the next UK PM?
$63.8USA 🇺🇸: 10%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
$374.9KDecember 31: 48%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETMahmoud Abbas still President of the Palestinian Authority through the end of 2026?
$271.4Yes: 54%FUTUUR
FUTUURActive in these topics
Related News
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.NewsIran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
Gulf officials weigh US-backed Lebanon–Israel framework as Polymarket Yes slipsBlockchain.News
U.S.-Iran strikes lift oil, Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 38.5%Blockchain.News
US-Iran talks fray as Polymarket puts Dec 31 nuclear deal odds at 45.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.