Will Armin Laschet be the next chancellor of Germany?
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
This is a market on whether Armin Laschet, leader of the CDU party, will win an upcoming German chancellor’s election.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Armin Laschet is the next elected chancellor, and “No” otherwise.
- The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on September 26, 2021, after which either a chancellor may be elected and appointed, or a new federal election will be held and the process will repeat.
- This market will resolve only when there is a successful chancellor’s election, meaning once a chancellor has been both elected by the Bundestag and appointed by the president.
- For instance, if the first round of elections is inconclusive and Merkel remains chancellor in the meantime, and the second round is won by Laschet, this market will resolve as "Yes." This market will resolve according to the German government’s website (https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/chancellor) and the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service (protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp).
- In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
