PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 10:07 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Benjamin Netanyahu0%
Elon Musk0%
Emmanuel Macron0%
Hillary Clinton5%
Abdul El-SayedWon
Barack ObamaWon
J.B. PritzkerWon
James TalaricoWon
Jerome PowellWon
Joe BidenWon
Jon OssoffWon
Kaitlan CollinsWon
Mark CarneyWon
Nicolás MaduroWon
Tucker CarlsonWon
Hillary ClintonLost
Adam SchiffLost
Alex JonesLost
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezLost
Andy BurnhamLost
Benjamin NetanyahuLost
Candace OwensLost
Elizabeth WarrenLost
Elon MuskLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
KalshiTrump publicly insults Warsh by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump publicly convert to Judaism by the end of his second term?
Manifold MarketsTrump Publicly comes Out As LGBTQ by The end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump ever publicly endorse another presidential candidate?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump publicly call for a global AI slowdown?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe.
- Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available.
- Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported.
- Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.