Iran military action against ___ by March 31?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
Israel 100%Leader of 38 outcomes
Market quality
7 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 154 days ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 4:37 PMMar 31, 26, 12:00 AM
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
- Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
- Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted as Israel.
- Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iran military action against ___ by March 31??
- Polymarket prices Israel at 100% as of March 31, 2026.
- When does Iran military action against ___ by March 31? resolve?
- Iran military action against ___ by March 31? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026.
- How is Iran military action against ___ by March 31? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".