PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: May 1, 2026, 11:09 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Probability Timeline
June 30100%
March 10%
March 20%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
April 301%
April 150%
April 70%
May 31100%
April 216%
April 240%
June 30Won
May 31Won
March 1Lost
March 2Lost
March 7Lost
March 15Lost
March 31Lost
April 30Lost
April 15Lost
April 7Lost
April 21Lost
April 24Lost
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended.
- Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
- Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count.
- Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
