PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
June 30 100%+55.5ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$4.4M
Liquidity
$4M
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+60.5 pts
Market data
Updated 122 days ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 4:33 PMJun 30, 26, 11:55 PM
Probability Timeline
June 30100%
March 10%
March 20%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
April 301%
April 150%
April 70%
May 31100%
April 216%
April 240%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended.
- Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
- Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count.
- Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
