Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleNov 4, 22, 12:00 AMNov 8, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022:
- 1) James David Vance (J.D. Vance) wins the 2022 Ohio U.S. Senate election 2) Blake Gates Masters wins the 2022 Arizona U.S. Senate election 3) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate 4) The Republican Party wins control of the U.S.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-6.0pt54%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt37.8%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+8.6pt79%
- October 31+20.0pt67%
- September 30+19.0pt48%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17.8%
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt13.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.7M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+4.0pt86%
- Yes-4.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $11M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff margin of victory?
- Darline Graham, 0-3%+6.0pt18.4%
- Darline Graham, 3-6%+2.0pt15.6%
- Ralph Norman, 0-3%+3.0pt13.8%
+15 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro-0.1pt34.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt3%
+15 more outcomes
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout
- Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?
- Ohio Governor winner?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for The Thiel Parlay?
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 25, 2026.
- When does The Thiel Parlay resolve?
- The Thiel Parlay is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2022.
- How is The Thiel Parlay settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if ALL of the following conditions are true as a result of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, scheduled to take place on November 8, 2022: