PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.1% 30.4%-0.5ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$114.4
Liquidity
$20.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 4:35 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 8:30 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mexico unemployment rate in August
KalshiChina unemployment rate in August
KalshiAustralia unemployment rate in August
KalshiWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.4% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.2% in September 2026?
ForecastExWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 3.6% in September 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
- The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
- The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
- Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
- If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? · Exactly 4.1% 31%
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for September Unemployment Rate?
- Polymarket prices 4.1% at 30% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does September Unemployment Rate resolve?
- September Unemployment Rate is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is September Unemployment Rate settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
- Where else is September Unemployment Rate listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.