PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
New Zealand First Party 53.9%-5.5ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$48K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
+4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 11:59 PM UTCNov 7, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election?
Manifold MarketsFollowing the 2026 New Zealand election, which parties will be represented in parliament?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand Election: Turnout
PolymarketNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
PolymarketSweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
PolymarketNew Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)
Manifold MarketsRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
- If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
- If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
- If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- South Carolina Senate winner?
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- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
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- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New Zealand Election: 3rd Place?
- Polymarket prices New Zealand First Party at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New Zealand Election: 3rd Place resolve?
- New Zealand Election: 3rd Place is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2026.
- How is New Zealand Election: 3rd Place settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.