Military intervention in Niger by September 15?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Sep 16, 2023, 9:17 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
No 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleAug 18, 23, 9:00 PMSep 15, 23, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 18, 2023 and September 15, 2023 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger.
- For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc. Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention.
- A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+7.2pt78%
- October 31+18.5pt65%
- September 30+13.0pt42%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22100%
- August 25+0.8pt100%
- August 31+4.0pt96%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No-6.0pt60.4%
- Yes+6.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $9.5M
- 24h Vol
- $333.2K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $59.9M
- 24h Vol
- $269.1K
POLYMARKETNext round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- March 31, 2027+0.5pt68%
- December+2.0pt53%
- September 30,+3.5pt25%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)72%
- New People (NL)-0.2pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Military intervention in Niger by September 15??
- Polymarket prices No at 100% as of April 24, 2026.
- When does Military intervention in Niger by September 15? resolve?
- Military intervention in Niger by September 15? is scheduled to resolve on September 15, 2023.
- How is Military intervention in Niger by September 15? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 18, 2023 and September 15, 2023 11:59 PM ET.