PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 11%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31 11%Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$503.3
Low liquidityOpen interest
$116.6
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
24
7d Change
-27.4 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
May 28, 26, 7:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
July 31Lost
June 30Lost
June 7Lost
May 31Lost
September 30Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered.
- Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count.
- Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
