This market resolved: No 3–6%
Resolved: Aug 31, 2026, 11:50 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
No 3–6%100%
Yes 15%+0%
Yes 12–15%7%
Yes 9–12%0%
Yes 6–9%4%
Yes 3–6%0%
Yes <3%0%
No <3%0%
No 6–9%0%
No 9–12%0%
No 12–15%0%
No 15%+0%
No 3–6%Won
Yes 15%+Lost
Yes 12–15%Lost
Yes 9–12%Lost
Yes 6–9%Lost
Yes 3–6%Lost
Yes <3%Lost
No <3%Lost
No 6–9%Lost
No 9–12%Lost
No 12–15%Lost
No 15%+Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
- The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No".
- Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
- If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
