Current implied probability
Over 57%+2.5pt
Market quality
35 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
39.0% / 76.0%
Spread
37.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+12.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 6:20 PM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
- This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
- Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party.
- Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%??
- Polymarket prices Over at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%? resolve?
- Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.