Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 1:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Linke100%
CDU32%
AfD5%
Grüne1%
SPD3%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%
LinkeAwaiting result
CDUAwaiting result
AfDAwaiting result
GrüneAwaiting result
SPDAwaiting result
FDPAwaiting result
FWAwaiting result
BSWAwaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The Premier of Victoria will be from which Part(ies) after the 2026 state election?
Manifold Markets2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner
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Manifold MarketsWhat combination of parties will form executive government after the 2026 Victorian state election?
Manifold MarketsRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
- If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
- This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
