Current implied probability
Linke 33%-0.5%Leader of 24 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.5K
Liquidity
$394.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
23.1% / 23.8%
Spread
3.0%
Moderate spread7d Change
+10.8%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Dec 2, 25, 11:38 AMSep 20, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Linke33%
Compare venues· CDU
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Smarkets
Berlin State Election Winner
Closed
32.8%
25.6%
17.9%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1
24h Vol$0
SMARKETS
Also available on Kalshi
Berlin state election winner?
1y
44%
27%
22%
+4 more outcomes
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$4.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
- If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
- This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.4k81.9%POLYMARKETWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? — Noflawfence10d ago
POLYMARKETWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? — Noflawfence10d agoVolume trend
$8.5kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
- If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
- This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
- This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.