Current implied probability
CDU 32%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$5.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
29.0% / 35.0%
Spread
20.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 17, 26, 2:00 PMSep 20, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
CDU32%
Also available on Polymarket
Berlin State Election Winner
1.0%3mo
+1.0%30%
+1.0%22%
+0.1%22%
+21 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.7M
24h Vol$4.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If CDU wins the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
- For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
- If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
- For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.