538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?
Politics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Democrats
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Democrats 100%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 123 days ago
StaleAug 2, 22, 12:00 AMAug 15, 22, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Republicans0%
Democrats100%
100%
0%
Rules
If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans".
- If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats".
- If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50.
- The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022".
- The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/.
- Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
